Why the Wallabies will win Bledisloe II
As the old sporting adage goes, “You’re only as good as your last match!” So therefore the Wallabies coming off two losses in a row, one each against the Kiwi’s at Eden Park followed by the one two weeks ago against the Springboks at Newlands, are now staring down the barrel of their worst Tri-nations result ever. The Wallabies started their international campaign with wins over the Bah Bahs, Italy & the Kiwi conquering French with the media singing their praise, however now they are viewed as desperate and with not enough mongrel, according to Taine Randell. But hang-on they have only played two Tri-nations matches -both away games- they have a match this Saturday in Sydney followed by two home matches against the Springboks in Perth & Brisbane. If in three weeks time we win three from three we will be atop of the Tri-nations ladder and these ponderings will be long gone as fish & chips wrappings.
For any team to win the Tri-nations or the Bledisloe Cup, which is the subset that matters most in Australasian rugby, the team must have several world bests in various positions. If we look at yesterday’s announced Wallabies team we have the best open-side flanker for 2009 in Captain George Smith with the European player of the year for 2009, Rocky Elsom, returning from injury on the other flank. Without doubt Matt Giteau is the current world best at number 10, although previous world best Dan Carter is returning from injury for the ABs having only played 60 or so minutes before being injured in France and another 60 minutes last week for Canterbury in the Air New Zealand Cup win over Waikato. The Wallabies also have Berrick Barnes who has been a revelation after leaving the Broncos to join the Reds in 2006. His development has been so rapid that he could arguable take over Matt Giteau’s reign if he hasn’t already. While the All Blacks have Mils Muliaina at full back as world beater, young James O’Conner proved against the Springboks that he is up to the challenge after a poor performance at Eden Park. With Adam Ashley-Cooper moving to outside centre in place of the injured Mortlock the Wallaby backline would be the best in world rugby and especially against an unsettled All Black combination that will be undecided up until match day.
Returning to the forwards and the match-ups are pretty even. From Bledisloe I the Wallabies dominated the line-out and last outing against the Springboks they fixed the scrum issues. In fact they drove the ‘Boks scrum around the paddock so much that John Smit had to converse with the referee to “milk” a penalty after switching to the relatively easier loose-head side. With James Horwill (14 tests) and Nathan (77 tests) in the second row they have the wood well and truly over their Kiwi counterparts Brad Thorn (30 tests) & Isaac Ross (6 tests).
Finally we look at the respective coaches both of Kiwi origin with extensive resumes. Taine Randell may have rubbished Robbie Deans in Spiro Zavos’ column in The Sydney Morning Herald yesterday but I would argue that Graham Henry is the one we should scrutinise. I remember in 2001 when he brought the British and Irish Lions to our shores and they suffered their first series defeat (2-1) in over 100 years of visits here. He later masterminded the policy of resting key All Blacks from Super 14 in 2007 to keep them fresh for the World Cup that year and when those select players came back to Super 14 they were very much “underdone”. And where did they end up in WC ’07? A quarter final loss to nemesis’ France which constituted the earliest exit for an All Blacks’ side in World Cup history. No, I’m quietly confident of a win for Robbie Deans’ men this weekend by at least 9 points.
Shattered
Well I kept the same heading that the astute rugby editors of New Zealand newspapers would have had prepared to use as most pundits from both sides of the ditch thought the Wallabies had it in the bag. The nine point margin lead to the Wallabies (and for most of the second half) was exactly my prediction of the result for Bledisloe II.
As I mentioned in my Bledisloe I match report I have never in 30+ years of rugby criticised the referee's overall performance, except for that match, and I stand by that rating Jonathon Kaplan's display as above average (around 75%). He is not the most popular referee in Australia and he is only human when he penalised Rocky Elsom in the 14th minute for attacking the opposition player in a lineout when he clearly was only going for the ball. That mistake was nullified when the villian of Bledisloe 1, assistant referee Craig Joubert, calls Dan Carter's pass to Conrad Smith forward -which it clearly was. The ensuing scrum saw Al Baxter in trouble and the reset had Richard Brown trapped at the back, therefore reversing the advantage in favor of the All Blacks putting them back on attack.
But I do not want to dwell on the refereeing because although it was not perfect the three South African officials produced the best refereeing in the Tri-nations so far this year and unfortunately (or fortunately)none should be there next week as neutral officials will be selected when the Wallabies take on the 'Boks in that South African ex-pat bastion known as Perth, Western Australia.
As this website is about the promotion of rugby I will not bore you, the readers, with the minutae of what occurred in last night's encounter, suffice to say it was a great advertisment for the Brand which the Bledisloe Cup is. Both teams defied the boring up & under policy of the Springboks and showed that ball in hand is what the fans had paid their money to see and that is what won the day. At last the team that scored the majority of tries finished on top after 80 minutes. I will take nothing away from the ABs' win as they proved with Sitiveni Sivivatu and Ma'a Nonu teaming up for the only try of the match that they were the "X" factor that won the match. Ironically the only two world beaters that I neglected to mention in my preview. Those two players were the difference and I will admit that rugby is such a diverse game & the constraints of writing concise commentry I was lacking in my assessment. Not everyone wants (nor has time) to read a tome of about every facet of this complex phenomenum known as RUGBY!!!
I am just putting the Springboks on notice to play rugby or suffer the consequences.